If Nawaz Sharif seemed to have learnt from his past mistakes, not anymore considering how he has responded to the first major political challenge thrown his way by the PTI. He misjudged Imran Khan's seriousness in demanding recounting of votes in four most disputed constituencies to expose alleged electoral fraud, and electoral reform. When the push came to shove the government invoked Article 245 of the Constitution to call in the Army to secure Islamabad for three months, ostensibly to ward off any blowback from military operation in North Waziristan but actually as a protective measure against the PTI's August 14 'Azadi march'.
Interestingly, nine days after the issuance of the notification about troops deployment under Article 245, ISPR spokesman Major General Asim Bajwa told reporters that no additional troops were being deployed in the capital other than those stationed there "on June 15 at the time of the launch of the Zarb-i-Azb". Pressing the point further, he said that the government notification had come late as the deployment had been in place since June 15. In other words, the notification had nothing to do with the Waziristan operation, as claimed by the government, and everything to do with the PTI's protest march. These assertions indicate that the Army has no intention of intervening on government's behalf. It surely would love, however, the opportunity to act as an arbiter in the political dispute. The government has made a dangerous mistake.
There is still time to correct that mistake and resolve an essentially political issue through political means. The PTI is not alone in demanding electoral reform. Other major parties have voiced their support for the same. A parliamentary committee has already been formed to do that job. But the key issue of dispute is alleged electoral fraud. Although the PTI has now upped its demand from votes verification, on the basis of NADRA thumbprint record, in four constituencies to a call for the Prime Minister's resignation and early polls, that apparently is a pressure tactic. Imran Khan, as leader of the second largest party in terms of popular vote, has a stake in the continuation of the democratic system. He is likely to withdraw the unreasonable early polls demand if the four-constituency issue is resolved to his satisfaction.
There is enough evidence floating around that shows large-scale rigging took place everywhere because of mismanagement by the Election Commission of Pakistan. Almost all parties, including the PML-N, have been crying foul, lending strength to PTI's stance. If fraud indeed was committed, it amounts to disenfranchising the people who voted for one or the other party. Regardless of PTI's demands, the electoral system needs to be cleaned and problem areas fixed. The government doesn't need to resist redress. Even if all the four PML-N legislators are de-seated as result of a review/reelection, Nawaz Sharif will still have majority in the House to continue as prime minister. The problem from his perspective is that three of them are prominent faces of the party: Federal ministers Khwaja Asif and Khwaja Saad Rafique, and National Assembly Speaker Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. Losing their seats would be embarrassing for the party. There is nothing new, though, about important leaders losing seats and winning from other constituencies. Accepting impartial scrutiny into alleged fraud is an honourable thing to do, evasion is not.
The question at his point in time is that what might happen in Islamabad when the Azadi marchers reach there? More to the point, how would it end? Protest marches are a part of democratic culture. The PTI and others who choose to join it can come and make their point. However, Imran Khan says the marchers will stay in the capital for as long as it takes to have their demands met, and that he will sleep there alongside his party workers. If the government and its advisers think they will tire out Imran and his marchers that is not going to happen. They need to take note of some recent examples in other countries. Just this past May, ceaseless opposition demonstrations in Thailand against the popularly-elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra paved the way for the Thai army to manoeuvre her government's ouster. In July last year, the Egyptian army used the pretext of opposition protests to stage a coup against the country's first ever elected president Mohamed Morsi. Back in 2001, 'people power' led to the overthrow of Philippines president Joseph Estrada's government elected with a huge margin of victory.
We have a painful example from our own history, when a right wing parties' alliance launched a campaign against the Bhutto government, alleging rigging in the 1977 general elections. It led to one of the darkest periods in this country's history. Indeed, times have changed. What was doable then, and again in 1999 in different circumstances, is not doable now. The judiciary is not compliant anymore. Independent electronic media did not exist then. Sadly, though, certain private TV channels' owners have weakened the media's power due to their greed and jealousies. The government itself has made a major blunder by inviting the Army. Old habits die hard, the men in uniform would still be pining to intervene and fix political problems their own way. If, as we like to believe, the time of deposing elected governments is over, they might yet tell the ruling party to resolve the situation with PTI in this or that manner. If they do so, the government itself would have to blame.
It should not be so difficult for the PM to publically announce acceptance of PTI's original demand, giving up seats in the four controversial constituencies to allow for fresh election. That will knock the wind out of the Azadi marchers' sails. He should do that before things spin out of control. The longer he takes the harder it would be for Imran to retreat from his maximalist position. No prizes for guessing right who would be the happiest playing the arbiter in a sordid showdown scenario.
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